Drought and variable rain to be heeded as climate change impact: World Bank report

A recent world bank report says, the drought or drought-like situation that prevails in India, points to the larger picture of climate change and India's efforts for adaptation. The low monsoon in the current kharif (summer crop) season, is but a wake-up call to the fact that India's farmers will be be one of the worst affected sections of climate change. India with its 57 per cent workforce engaged in agriculture and 20 per cent of the GDP attributable to agriculture, climate change impacts will adversely affect the growth of the country. The report, first of its kind in South-Asia looks at two drought prone regions in Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra and one flood prone region in Orissa.

India which has extremely varied climatic and geographic conditions, droughts and floods are not uncommon; but what is alarming are its increasing frequencies. From 1900 to 1950 there were six droughts in India. But in the following 50 years there were twelve. In 21^st century alone we witnessed three droughts. 2009 could be the fourth year with the Indian Meteorological Department(IMD) probably declaring it a drought year if the monsoon withdraws by early September. Areas affected by by flood has also doubled in the last 50 years. Floods have occurred every year since 1980 and has substantially increased in 2003 due to which even some drought prone areas were affected.

The report predicts that in Andhra Pradesh a “moderate to harsh climate change scenario” will result in rise of temperature of 2.3 C to 3.4 C and a modest but erratic rainfall of 4% to 8%. This would means a a decline in farmer income by as much as 20 per cent. The worst affected will be kharif crops like rice and jowar. Whereas, in Maharashtra while the yield of jowar and millets will boost farmers incomes by 8% to 10%, the yield of sugarcane which is hugely subsidised, will decline by 30 per cent. A shift to less water-intensive crops will be a solution to this, the report suggests. The report predicts that in Orissa floods will increase dramatically, especially in the coastal regions, leading to decline in paddy yields by as much as 12 per cent.

The report says that there cannot be one solution to agricultural vows and it must be tailored for local conditions. In drought prone areas, climate change impacts should be countered with better water management, besides promotion of climate resilient agriculture, smart subsidies to promote environmentally suited crops and diversifying income by way of micro-credit or insurance to cover initial business risks. The study says “Greater attention must be given to hybrid approaches that emphasize the efficiency of groundwater use and increase the effectiveness of watershed activities to conserve soil moisture and harvest rainwater.” Grand projects for water conservation must be complemented with a people inclusive efforts. The report also says, in the flood-prone areas promoting rainfall-tolerant and shorter duration crops, more careful land-use planning and flood zoning and strengthening system to detect and forecast flood will be the way forward.